COPENHAGEN FAILURE & THE BERKELEY LINE

You probably know that the climate talks are facing difficulties.
Everyone has done, certainly within the NGO’s, everything they can to
make these talks a success. We must work for success and hope that
this occurs.

Should they fail it will be because most people, and financial
professionals certainly, don’t feel threatened by Global Warming. In
the event of failure talks should be halted until this situation
changes.

The time when most people experience Global Warming sufficiently to
become alarmed by it I term the Berkeley Line. This is not a
mathematical concept but can be expressed in a simple mathematical
formula. Any temperature above this line will make it possible to
arrange global action to take very drastic action on Global Warming.
Most people will not think of this in mathematical terms it will
rather be something they feel. The action taken will be drastic cuts
in greenhouse gas emissions and probably geo engineering in addition.

However by expressing it mathematically campaigners will be ready more
quickly than they otherwise could be to get the global community to
react to the problem. The formula is simple. Since there was an
increase in global temperature in the years after 1976 the necessary
temperature can be measured from that time.

Hence if the global average temperature, as measured by the Hadley
Centre, exceeded 0.6 degrees Celsius above the global temperature
until 1976 before 2006 averaged over a three year period the Berkeley
line would have been exceeded. This did not happen. After 2006 the
line rises at 0.15 degrees Celsius per decade and can be measured for
any one particular year. As an example the temperature for 2011 is
0.675 degrees Celsius above the temperature until 1976 so the level
above that is 0.68 degrees Celsius above 1976.  It is slightly more
complex than this but this is the gist of it. Should there be one very
warm year, warmer than 0.05 degrees Celsius above the Berkeley Line
for that year then the Line can be deemed to be exceeded.

Should the talks fail there will be a feeling that supporting NGO’s is
futile, so support and funding will fall away. This can be overcome by
stating that our objective will be to take desperate action when the
Berkeley line is exceeded and obtaining world agreement for this
action. The problem with this is that it might be too late to save the
global climate but it seems it might be the only way forward. In this
situation humanity will need to cut emissions drastically and use geo
engineering where appropriate to try and save the global climate.

A similar situation will arise if the arctic sea ice melts in late
summer before the Berkeley Line is exceeded, then drastic action in a
like manner will be possible...